Faded bars = predicted, at current pace to year-end.
Retirement Monte Carlo simulation
10,000 random paths over the household portfolio, split into three sleeves: an equity sleeve that gets a random market return (one pension 92% equities, the other 75%, plus the ISA/stock savings), a bonds/other sleeve (the rest of the pensions) growing at a steady 3.5%, and a cash sleeve at a fixed rate. Spending draws cash first, then bonds, then equities. Each year the portfolio funds your spend minus all other income — PIP, Protected Rights, Carer’s Allowance and both state pensions — at their real workbook dates; the pot is floored at zero (ruin). Return model:Gaussian (bell curve, your mean & volatility) or Historical (block-bootstrapped real index returns — fat tails, crash clustering, sequence risk, real volatility). In Historical mode the equity return each year blends S&P 500 (US) and FTSE All-Share (UK) drawn from the same year, so their real correlation is preserved; set the UK equity weight to match your mix (your M&G ISA is UK/FTSE, the pensions are more global). Historical window is 1988–2024 (the overlap where both indices exist).
Shaded bands: 5th–95th and 25th–75th percentiles · solid line = median total portfolio
Failure rate
—
money runs out before end
Median final pot
Downside (5th pct)
Upside (95th pct)
Yr-1 net drawdown
Portfolio scope
Other income (start/stop dates)
Return model
Retirement & pension planning
Pension pot (I)
— tax-free lump sum
Pension pot (J)
— tax-free lump sum
Combined pension
Target retirement spend
Assumed inflation
Total wealth
State pension timeline
Generated from your workbook snapshot. All values as recorded on 18 Jul 2026. Forecasts are model projections and not guaranteed.
Not financial advice — figures are for personal tracking only.